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Bio - Eric Mihelbergel is an intermediate level windsurfer and kiteboarder living in the Great Lakes Region of New York State who enjoys writing about windsports and fitness.
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Weather Forecasting for Wind Driven Water Sports in Western New York
By Eric Mihelbergel
Updated June 2023
(Click HERE for my 6 part video series on Predicting Wind)
I am not a professional meteorologist. Do NOT rely on any of this information without consulting a professional meteorologist. Always use extreme caution with all weather events. The information below is for entertainment purposes only.
Do you want to get more time on the water to windsurf, kiteboard and wingfoil? Do you want to ride smaller sails, kites, and wings? (Click here for an article on Riding Smaller Sails). Do you want to get skunked less frequently? Then improve your weather forecasting skills. You know you need wind to ride, so get better at determining WHEN and WHERE the wind will be blowing the best. “Best” is a relative term because some people like light winds while others prefer strong winds. Some prefer onshore winds and others like offshore or side-shore winds. I personally enjoy the strongest side-shore or side-on winds I can find, so for the purposes of this article I will be gearing my discussion toward finding stronger side-shore or side-on winds. Please keep in mind that I am not a meteorologist. I’m just a guy that likes to windsurf, kiteboard, and windfoil who has made some weather connections that impact our sports. I would like to share these things with you, but this article is for entertainment purposes only. Consult with a professional meteorologist before relying on anything in this article.
A good starting point in weather forecasting for wind driven water sports is with professionally developed weather models. Start with, what I call, the Big 3…NAM, ECMWF, and GFS. As of the date of this article you can access these 3 models for free at Windy.com, PredictWind.com, and igetwind.com. A service like iWindsurf.com (AKA Weather Flow) also has many free tools while some of their other tools require a subscription fee. In my experience it is definitely worth paying the subscription fee. It is an excellent resource. At iWindsurf.com you can gain access to the NAM and GFS forecasts, plus WRF, CMC, HRRR, and ICON. In addition, iWindsurf.com offers their own interpretive models of WRF and HRRR which are very accurate and useful. PredictWind.com has their own PWG and PWE models, but I have found that these over estimate wind. And iGetWind.com will also get you access to ICON, LAM, and HRW for free. In addition, I also use NOAA’s Hourly Weather Graphs and WindFinder.com. Check these 13 forecasting models several times throughout the day at the locations that you like to ride. I ride at about 10 different locations in western New York. YES, 13 x 10 = 130 different forecasts to check, but it only takes a glance once you get used to it, know what you are looking for, and have your electronic devices set up for it. For example, if the wind is going to blow northeast, then I only have 3 locations that I normally go to, so I will only bother with checking those 3 locations. And out of the 13 models, there are only 7 that I mostly depend on for Northeast wind. 7 x 3 = 21. Checking those 21 models probably takes me about 3 minutes on my phone, and maybe 2 minutes on my desktop computer. So don’t be intimidated. It’s quick and easy. Over time you will figure out what you really need to check and what you don’t need to check.
There are a few other tools that you will need. I have found it to be very important to watch weather fronts. The best tool I’ve found for weather fronts is NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center found at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Go to this site and click on “Fronts” in the tabs. This site uses Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), so subtract 4 hours for Eastern Standard Time when we are on daylight savings time. Subtract 5 hours when we are not on daylight savings time. It is also important to have a resource to see cloud cover. For cloud cover I like www.weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Click on the "View Localized Sectors” for sector resolution, and then click the dot near Buffalo, NY. Be sure the "ABI Bands" is set for "Visible (red). Precipitation is important to follow, so you should have a radar website. I use www.wunderground.com To find water temperature for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario you can use this website http://www.weather.gov/buf/LakeTemp for temperature at depth. If you want surface water temperature you can use these 2 sites for Lake Erie and Ontario respectively https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=e&ext=swt&type=N&hr=39 and https://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=o&ext=swt&type=N&hr=00 Lastly, you need to know the Current Wind Speed. For this I use iWindsurf.com (AKA Weather Flow), and I pay the subscription fee so that I get all the meters. It is a great resource. I also directly check some of the NOAA buoys for wind speed and direction because, for some meters, NOAA reports more data for their buoys on their own website than iWindsurf reports for those same buoys.
Now, set up your electronic devices with all of the above tools, and go through each and every tool when you want to forecast the wind for your next session. On your desktop computer, add ALL of the above websites to your “Favorites” on your desktop computer and keep ALL of them open in separate “Tabs” ALL of the time. You can program your browser to open ALL of the tabs at the same time when you open the browser by going to your browser settings. This saves time so you don't have to open each one individually. Go through each and every website when you are forecasting a session. Just “Refresh” as needed. On your smart phone, use a separate icon on your “Main Pages” for each website link or app above. I use 4 of the 7 “Main Pages” of my Android just for wind apps and website links. Go through each and every item when you forecast a session. You will not miss sessions if you set up your electronic devices in this way. Up to this point we have basically just looked at tools. Now let’s talk about analyzing these tools. What should you look for when checking these models? Here is a list of what I look for on these models: average wind speed, wind gusts, wind direction, air temperature near the lake and away from the lake, water temperature at the lake surface, cloud cover, rain, air pressure, dew point temperature, CAPE values, lake effect rain/snow, upwelling, and overall pressure systems. In my experience, the most important times to analyze these forecast tools are the night before, the morning of, and just before driving to the beach. Let’s start analyzing the following: |
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1. Wind Direction and Speed – I like to ride with side-shore or side-on wind. At Windy.com the wind direction is animated with moving arrows across a map and wind speed is depicted by color. You can zoom in on your favorite riding spots to view the forecasted wind speed and to see if the forecasted wind direction will be side-shore at your spot. But just because the forecasts show a particular direction and speed doesn’t mean that it will actually happen in reality. Direction and speed can change with weather fronts, thermals, storms, and bubbling. You can sometimes get a better idea of what wind direction and speed will be like by looking at the current wind speed at locations upwind from you. For example, if a cold front is arriving from the west on Lake Erie along with a low pressure system, I go to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center to see what time the cold front is passing. I start with Cleveland Ohio (which is far upwind to the west) on iWindsurf to get the current wind direction and speed as the front approaches Cleveland and passes that location. Then I watch what happens to wind direction and speed as the front moves east and passes Conneaut Ohio, then Erie Pennsylvania, then Dunkirk NY. When it hits Dunkirk I had better already be driving to my spot in Buffalo or I might miss the best wind of the day. Be prepared. Get there early and rig early before the front arrives. Watch those meters at locations upwind from you to get an idea of what size sail to rig. I actually organize my iWindsurf "Favorites" from west to east since most of our weather systems arrive from the west and travel east. That way I can see the progression at a glance. When it comes to wind speed, notice the difference between average wind speed and wind gusts when you look at a forecast. The larger the difference, the poorer the wind quality will likely be. But even more importantly, check the “real time” average wind speed and gusts before you leave your house. You may find better wind if you go to a location where there is a smaller difference between average wind speed and gust speed. This is not always true, but I have found that it holds true more often than not. You will get to know your meters better and better with more and more experience.
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2. Temperatures – There are 3 basic temperatures that I am looking at when I read a forecast. Air temperature near the lake, air temperature away from the lake, and water temperature at the surface of the lake. One obvious reason is so I know how to dress. But another reason is to determine if “bubbling” might occur. This is also known as "doming" in Canada. It's the same thing. The more technical name for "bubbling" or "doming" is temperature inversion. Normally, temperature decreases as altitude increases, but if there is a temperature inversion then temperature increases as altitude increases in the area of the atmosphere where the inversion exists. So, in this discussion, if the lake surface is cold relative to the air temperature, then the lake will cool the air directly above the lake up to about 20-300 feet, while the air more than 20-300 feet above the lake surface is still relatively warm, thus giving us the inversion. The wind will prefer to travel through the less dense warmer air that is 20-300 feet above the lake surface rather than travel through the cooler denser air directly adjacent to the lake surface. It sort of makes a “bubble” or "dome" of cold air over the lake surface. It is difficult to directly measure the air temperature 20-300 feet above the lake, but it is reasonable to assume that it would approximate the air temperature away from the lake. So I use the air temperatures at the local airports to approximate what the temperature is 20-300 feet above the lake on days when the lake surface temperature is cold relative to air temperature. On eastern Lake Erie, I have found that a temperature difference of about 8 degrees between the Niagara Falls airport and the lake surface water temperature can result in a “bubbling” effect that can drastically reduce wind speed near the lake surface. This has been very reliable.
"Bubbling" occurs much more often in the Buffalo harbor than it does in the Hamburg/Angola area when the wind is WSW. Why? The coolest part of Lake Erie is usually in the middle of the lake between Dunkirk, NY and Long Point, ON. When the wind is WSW that cool air over the lake blows directly into the Buffalo harbor. This cool air sinks and gets trapped in the harbor by the tall buildings of downtown. At the same time, those tall buildings of downtown push the wind upward like ridge lift. So it's a double whammy for a "bubble"! Cool air blowing directly into the Buffalo harbor that sinks and gets trapped thus pushing the wind up, plus a ridge lift like effect from the buildings pushing the wind upward. The cool air generally does not push into the Hamburg/Angola area. Simply look at a map of Lake Erie and you will see that the WSW fetch blows the coldest air directly into the Buffalo harbor. This is easily confirmed by looking at temperature sensors. For example, on a warm windy WSW day in say June, air temperature at the Niagara Falls airport may be say 85 degrees. The air temperature at Hamburg Beach will then be 77 degrees, and the air temperature at the Buffalo Lighthouse will be 70 degrees. The difference between the Buffalo Lighthouse temperature and the Niagara Falls airport is much greater than the difference between Hamburg Beach and the Niagara Falls airport. Thus, based on the discussion in the above paragraph, it is much more likely for a bubble to occur at the harbor. To avoid the bubble always go where the air temperature is warmest. This is the opposite of what most people think. You will also notice that the air temperature at the top of the Skyway Bridge is about 77 degrees when you drive your car over. Very obviously a bubble is occurring at the harbor with warmer air at the top of the Skyway compared to the Buffalo Lighthouse. While the water temperature may sometimes actually be slightly warmer in the Buffalo harbor, the cold air that blows into the harbor from the middle of the lake will settle at the lake's surface. You can view the NOAA surface temperature map to see where that cold water/air is located by clicking here. If there is a lot of cold water in the middle of the lake then there is a higher probability of a "bubble" in the Buffalo harbor. If there is little cold water in the middle of the lake then there is a lower probability of a "bubble".
3. Cloud Cover – Having an understanding of cloud cover can help us predict thermals. A thermal (or sea breeze) occurs when land heats up faster than water on very sunny days. Land has a much lower specific heat than water and therefore heats up much quicker because it requires less energy to heat up. The quickly warming land heats the air directly adjacent to the land and that warm air rises. As it rises it creates a low pressure area over the land which draws wind in from over the cooler lake where the air pressure is higher. This is the thermal effect. This rising effect of warm air over the land can sometimes (but not always) create cumulus clouds over the land. These are the puffy, lower altitude clouds. You can often see these clouds when you are at the beach. You do not see these clouds over the water because the air over the water is cooler, and that cooler air is not rising, it is sinking in a process called solenoidal circulation. And you are also not likely to see these clouds over the land directly near the downwind edge of the lake because the air is also cooler there from the wind coming off the lake. This area with no clouds over the land along the immediate downwind edge of the lake is called a “lake shadow”. It often (but not always) happens during a thermal event. You can clearly see this shadow on your visible satellite pictures at www.weather.cod.edu/satrad/ during the event (click on the “View Localized Sectors” for sector resolution, and then click the dot near Buffalo, NY). The cumulus clouds look speckled over most of the land, but there are none of these clouds in the “shadow” area or over the lake. This serves as extra confirmation that a thermal may be happening, and, in my experience, thermals increase wind speeds by about 5-8mph. You may get a better windsurf, kiteboard, or wingfoil session if you watch for this thermal effect and lake shadowing on the visible satellite websites and then go to the locations that are experiencing lake shadowing and the increased wind speed. Some of the models are starting to predict these thermals more accurately, but it's not entirely obvious. On iWindsurf.com I always check forecasts at the Erie East Buoy, the Buffalo Lighthouse, and Sunset Bay. For most of the systems we get they usually predict more wind at the Erie East Buoy. However, on sunny days you will sometimes see more wind predicted at Sunset Bay or the Buffalo Lighthouse rather than the Erie East Buoy. This is often due to thermal forecasting. Watch for it. A thermal induced sea breeze is often most probable around 12pm-4pm when things have heated up. But don't confuse a sea breeze with diurnal mixing. Land cools quickly at night and temperature can be cooler near the earth's surface in the morning compared to higher altitudes thus creating a temperature inversion over the land similar to the 'bubble' we discussed earlier. The winds will often blow at higher altitudes in the morning, and then later in the late morning/ early afternoon, as the land warms and air rises, the rising air mixes with the winds above and the wind comes down to lower altitudes for us to ride. This is called diurnal mixing. It can sometimes be correlated to a thermal sea breeze, but they are not the same meteorological phenomenon. Diurnal mixing is breaking a temperature inversion while a sea breeze is creation of a pressure gradient through solenoidal circulation.
4. Rain – Over the years, I have found that rain often means a “change” in wind speed and sometimes direction. The beginning of a heavy rain downpour will often increase wind speeds very quickly due to the downdraft created by falling rain. If you are prepared with the correct size sail already rigged some sailors will sometimes catch 10 minutes of riding in the rain at the beginning of a downpour, but it's not a good idea because of lightning and erratic wind speeds. Generally, it's a better idea to sit-out the first 10 minutes to see what happens. If the rain is arriving with a cold front, you will often find hours of increased wind speeds and good riding as the rain arrives and after it has passed. So if you see rain in the forecast make sure you look at the map of weather fronts at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center to see if the rain is due to a cold front. It could be the best wind of the month. And often times the rain even stops after the cold front arrives and the wind still remains great for the rest of the day. This is probably my favorite type of weather system to ride in Western New York. It is very predictable and often results in strong winds. However, there are other times when rain kills the wind. I have found that if rain kills the wind the rain is usually not associated with a cold front. Be careful of "fools wind". That happens when you see wind on the meter, then you rush to drive to the lake only to find that the wind is GONE because it was caused by a brief rain shower downdraft or storm.
"Bubbling" occurs much more often in the Buffalo harbor than it does in the Hamburg/Angola area when the wind is WSW. Why? The coolest part of Lake Erie is usually in the middle of the lake between Dunkirk, NY and Long Point, ON. When the wind is WSW that cool air over the lake blows directly into the Buffalo harbor. This cool air sinks and gets trapped in the harbor by the tall buildings of downtown. At the same time, those tall buildings of downtown push the wind upward like ridge lift. So it's a double whammy for a "bubble"! Cool air blowing directly into the Buffalo harbor that sinks and gets trapped thus pushing the wind up, plus a ridge lift like effect from the buildings pushing the wind upward. The cool air generally does not push into the Hamburg/Angola area. Simply look at a map of Lake Erie and you will see that the WSW fetch blows the coldest air directly into the Buffalo harbor. This is easily confirmed by looking at temperature sensors. For example, on a warm windy WSW day in say June, air temperature at the Niagara Falls airport may be say 85 degrees. The air temperature at Hamburg Beach will then be 77 degrees, and the air temperature at the Buffalo Lighthouse will be 70 degrees. The difference between the Buffalo Lighthouse temperature and the Niagara Falls airport is much greater than the difference between Hamburg Beach and the Niagara Falls airport. Thus, based on the discussion in the above paragraph, it is much more likely for a bubble to occur at the harbor. To avoid the bubble always go where the air temperature is warmest. This is the opposite of what most people think. You will also notice that the air temperature at the top of the Skyway Bridge is about 77 degrees when you drive your car over. Very obviously a bubble is occurring at the harbor with warmer air at the top of the Skyway compared to the Buffalo Lighthouse. While the water temperature may sometimes actually be slightly warmer in the Buffalo harbor, the cold air that blows into the harbor from the middle of the lake will settle at the lake's surface. You can view the NOAA surface temperature map to see where that cold water/air is located by clicking here. If there is a lot of cold water in the middle of the lake then there is a higher probability of a "bubble" in the Buffalo harbor. If there is little cold water in the middle of the lake then there is a lower probability of a "bubble".
3. Cloud Cover – Having an understanding of cloud cover can help us predict thermals. A thermal (or sea breeze) occurs when land heats up faster than water on very sunny days. Land has a much lower specific heat than water and therefore heats up much quicker because it requires less energy to heat up. The quickly warming land heats the air directly adjacent to the land and that warm air rises. As it rises it creates a low pressure area over the land which draws wind in from over the cooler lake where the air pressure is higher. This is the thermal effect. This rising effect of warm air over the land can sometimes (but not always) create cumulus clouds over the land. These are the puffy, lower altitude clouds. You can often see these clouds when you are at the beach. You do not see these clouds over the water because the air over the water is cooler, and that cooler air is not rising, it is sinking in a process called solenoidal circulation. And you are also not likely to see these clouds over the land directly near the downwind edge of the lake because the air is also cooler there from the wind coming off the lake. This area with no clouds over the land along the immediate downwind edge of the lake is called a “lake shadow”. It often (but not always) happens during a thermal event. You can clearly see this shadow on your visible satellite pictures at www.weather.cod.edu/satrad/ during the event (click on the “View Localized Sectors” for sector resolution, and then click the dot near Buffalo, NY). The cumulus clouds look speckled over most of the land, but there are none of these clouds in the “shadow” area or over the lake. This serves as extra confirmation that a thermal may be happening, and, in my experience, thermals increase wind speeds by about 5-8mph. You may get a better windsurf, kiteboard, or wingfoil session if you watch for this thermal effect and lake shadowing on the visible satellite websites and then go to the locations that are experiencing lake shadowing and the increased wind speed. Some of the models are starting to predict these thermals more accurately, but it's not entirely obvious. On iWindsurf.com I always check forecasts at the Erie East Buoy, the Buffalo Lighthouse, and Sunset Bay. For most of the systems we get they usually predict more wind at the Erie East Buoy. However, on sunny days you will sometimes see more wind predicted at Sunset Bay or the Buffalo Lighthouse rather than the Erie East Buoy. This is often due to thermal forecasting. Watch for it. A thermal induced sea breeze is often most probable around 12pm-4pm when things have heated up. But don't confuse a sea breeze with diurnal mixing. Land cools quickly at night and temperature can be cooler near the earth's surface in the morning compared to higher altitudes thus creating a temperature inversion over the land similar to the 'bubble' we discussed earlier. The winds will often blow at higher altitudes in the morning, and then later in the late morning/ early afternoon, as the land warms and air rises, the rising air mixes with the winds above and the wind comes down to lower altitudes for us to ride. This is called diurnal mixing. It can sometimes be correlated to a thermal sea breeze, but they are not the same meteorological phenomenon. Diurnal mixing is breaking a temperature inversion while a sea breeze is creation of a pressure gradient through solenoidal circulation.
4. Rain – Over the years, I have found that rain often means a “change” in wind speed and sometimes direction. The beginning of a heavy rain downpour will often increase wind speeds very quickly due to the downdraft created by falling rain. If you are prepared with the correct size sail already rigged some sailors will sometimes catch 10 minutes of riding in the rain at the beginning of a downpour, but it's not a good idea because of lightning and erratic wind speeds. Generally, it's a better idea to sit-out the first 10 minutes to see what happens. If the rain is arriving with a cold front, you will often find hours of increased wind speeds and good riding as the rain arrives and after it has passed. So if you see rain in the forecast make sure you look at the map of weather fronts at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center to see if the rain is due to a cold front. It could be the best wind of the month. And often times the rain even stops after the cold front arrives and the wind still remains great for the rest of the day. This is probably my favorite type of weather system to ride in Western New York. It is very predictable and often results in strong winds. However, there are other times when rain kills the wind. I have found that if rain kills the wind the rain is usually not associated with a cold front. Be careful of "fools wind". That happens when you see wind on the meter, then you rush to drive to the lake only to find that the wind is GONE because it was caused by a brief rain shower downdraft or storm.
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5. Air Pressure – In my experience, very high air pressure, such as that over 1025 hPA, can make the “bubble effect” worse. Sometimes we see this in the summer as the center of a high pressure system falls directly over Buffalo and holds pollutants down near the surface of the earth. We call it haze, and it often goes hand-in-hand with a temperature inversion thus making our bubbling problem worse. So keep an eye on air pressure if you are assessing the probability of bubbling.
6. Dew Point Temperature – I know what you are thinking. “Why the hell do I need to even look at dew point temperature?” Well, it’s to determine if there will be advection fog, which is caused by moist air passing over a cool surface. If you sail alone in the open lake as I often do, it is probably not all that safe to be out there in extreme dense fog. You can’t even see if you are still in front of the beach where you started. You might do everything correct in forecasting the wind on a particular day, but if you forget about fog then you may have wasted a lot of time. Check the dew point temperature at the location you plan to ride. If the dew point temperature is the same as the air temperature, or very close to it, then you will have fog. Fog is simply a very low stratus cloud. Clouds form when the rate of evaporation is equal to the rate of condensation. And that is exactly what dew point temperature is – the temperature at which the rate of evaporation is equal to rate of condensation. I mostly run into the problem of advection fog in the spring when the moist air near the lake is cooled by the cold lake. This often drops the air temperature to a point where it nears, or equals, the dew point temperature. There often is no fog anywhere else except over the lake where you were planning to ride. You can also check traffic cameras in your area that may be located near the lake. This can give you a real time visual of fog if there is a camera near the location that you want to sail. Here are traffic cameras for the Buffalo, NY area http://www.nittec.org/cameras/
7. CAPE Values – Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is basically a measure of energy available to create thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can really mess up your day at the lake. No one wants to get struck by lightning. If you use Windy.com, you can switch the forecast to show you CAPE values. This will help give you an idea of where and when thunderstorms are likely to occur.
8. Lake effect rain/snow – Knowing a little bit about lake effect rain or snow can help you to better determine the direction of wind at your spot. Let’s talk about this for Lake Erie (not Lake Ontario because I have not examined that). The first component needed for a lake effect event is cold air over warm water. But the difference in temperature needs to be about 23 degrees Fahrenheit, or more, between the temperature of the surface of the lake and the air temperature at 5000 feet above the lake. The lake warms the air near its surface and this warm air rises, eventually forming clouds that will deliver precipitation. However, there needs to be very little wind shear in order for a lake effect event to form. Wind shear is basically differences in direction of wind at different altitudes. If there is more than 30 degrees difference in wind direction between surface winds and winds at 5000 feet, it can prevent lake effect from happening. For example, if the surface wind is WSW at 240 degrees, then a wind direction of 280 degrees at 5000 feet could prevent the lake effect event from happening. It kind of rips it apart. Furthermore, if the wind shear at 10,000 feet is more than 60 degrees off the wind direction at the surface then this can also prevent a lake effect event. Windy.com allows you to view wind direction at the surface, at 5000 feet, and at 10,000 feet. Next, in order for lake effect to develop, it helps to have moist cold air coming into the region as opposed to dry air. Moist air will make cloud formation easier since clouds are made out of water. It also helps to have a low pressure system in the area as opposed to a high pressure system. Low pressure systems rotate inward and UPWARD allowing clouds to form more easily as air rises. High pressure prevents air from rising because they rotate outward and downward. Now what does all this have to do with wind driven water sports? Well, it has to do with what the wind direction will be at your local spots on Lake Erie in the Buffalo area. When all the above conditions align it results in some rapidly rising air over the lake. This is kind of the opposite of the thermal event that we discussed above, where air rises rapidly over LAND. With lake effect, since air is rising so very rapidly over the lake, it pulls air in from over the land. So, let’s say the surface wind over Lake Erie is WSW at 250 degrees, flowing directly into downtown Buffalo. This is the maximum fetch for Lake Erie. At points along the way like Dunkirk or Hamburg, the direction of the wind will likely be more SSW because that rapidly rising air over the lake is pulling air in from over the land on the south side of the lake. At points along the way in Canada, like Port Colbourne, the direction of the wind will likely be more WNW because the rapidly rising air over the lake is pulling air in from over the land on the north side of the lake. But the wind right at the Buffalo lighthouse and downtown Buffalo will still be WSW at 250 degrees because this is the leeward end of the fetch where all the wind comes out. As with thermals, most forecasting tools do NOT seem to account for this change in direction of wind. This was a long story to arrive at the conclusion that, during a WSW lake effect event, you will very likely find a much better wind direction and wind quality right near downtown Buffalo rather than at any locations upwind. Go to the locations upwind earlier in the day before the lake effect event is fully developed. But once the air starts rising rapidly over the lake, and the lake effect event is in full swing, go to locations right near downtown Buffalo. This probably happens in a similar way at the east end of Lake Ontario, but I have not looked at any data for that location. However, for Lake Erie in the Buffalo area, I have seen the connections many times.
6. Dew Point Temperature – I know what you are thinking. “Why the hell do I need to even look at dew point temperature?” Well, it’s to determine if there will be advection fog, which is caused by moist air passing over a cool surface. If you sail alone in the open lake as I often do, it is probably not all that safe to be out there in extreme dense fog. You can’t even see if you are still in front of the beach where you started. You might do everything correct in forecasting the wind on a particular day, but if you forget about fog then you may have wasted a lot of time. Check the dew point temperature at the location you plan to ride. If the dew point temperature is the same as the air temperature, or very close to it, then you will have fog. Fog is simply a very low stratus cloud. Clouds form when the rate of evaporation is equal to the rate of condensation. And that is exactly what dew point temperature is – the temperature at which the rate of evaporation is equal to rate of condensation. I mostly run into the problem of advection fog in the spring when the moist air near the lake is cooled by the cold lake. This often drops the air temperature to a point where it nears, or equals, the dew point temperature. There often is no fog anywhere else except over the lake where you were planning to ride. You can also check traffic cameras in your area that may be located near the lake. This can give you a real time visual of fog if there is a camera near the location that you want to sail. Here are traffic cameras for the Buffalo, NY area http://www.nittec.org/cameras/
7. CAPE Values – Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is basically a measure of energy available to create thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can really mess up your day at the lake. No one wants to get struck by lightning. If you use Windy.com, you can switch the forecast to show you CAPE values. This will help give you an idea of where and when thunderstorms are likely to occur.
8. Lake effect rain/snow – Knowing a little bit about lake effect rain or snow can help you to better determine the direction of wind at your spot. Let’s talk about this for Lake Erie (not Lake Ontario because I have not examined that). The first component needed for a lake effect event is cold air over warm water. But the difference in temperature needs to be about 23 degrees Fahrenheit, or more, between the temperature of the surface of the lake and the air temperature at 5000 feet above the lake. The lake warms the air near its surface and this warm air rises, eventually forming clouds that will deliver precipitation. However, there needs to be very little wind shear in order for a lake effect event to form. Wind shear is basically differences in direction of wind at different altitudes. If there is more than 30 degrees difference in wind direction between surface winds and winds at 5000 feet, it can prevent lake effect from happening. For example, if the surface wind is WSW at 240 degrees, then a wind direction of 280 degrees at 5000 feet could prevent the lake effect event from happening. It kind of rips it apart. Furthermore, if the wind shear at 10,000 feet is more than 60 degrees off the wind direction at the surface then this can also prevent a lake effect event. Windy.com allows you to view wind direction at the surface, at 5000 feet, and at 10,000 feet. Next, in order for lake effect to develop, it helps to have moist cold air coming into the region as opposed to dry air. Moist air will make cloud formation easier since clouds are made out of water. It also helps to have a low pressure system in the area as opposed to a high pressure system. Low pressure systems rotate inward and UPWARD allowing clouds to form more easily as air rises. High pressure prevents air from rising because they rotate outward and downward. Now what does all this have to do with wind driven water sports? Well, it has to do with what the wind direction will be at your local spots on Lake Erie in the Buffalo area. When all the above conditions align it results in some rapidly rising air over the lake. This is kind of the opposite of the thermal event that we discussed above, where air rises rapidly over LAND. With lake effect, since air is rising so very rapidly over the lake, it pulls air in from over the land. So, let’s say the surface wind over Lake Erie is WSW at 250 degrees, flowing directly into downtown Buffalo. This is the maximum fetch for Lake Erie. At points along the way like Dunkirk or Hamburg, the direction of the wind will likely be more SSW because that rapidly rising air over the lake is pulling air in from over the land on the south side of the lake. At points along the way in Canada, like Port Colbourne, the direction of the wind will likely be more WNW because the rapidly rising air over the lake is pulling air in from over the land on the north side of the lake. But the wind right at the Buffalo lighthouse and downtown Buffalo will still be WSW at 250 degrees because this is the leeward end of the fetch where all the wind comes out. As with thermals, most forecasting tools do NOT seem to account for this change in direction of wind. This was a long story to arrive at the conclusion that, during a WSW lake effect event, you will very likely find a much better wind direction and wind quality right near downtown Buffalo rather than at any locations upwind. Go to the locations upwind earlier in the day before the lake effect event is fully developed. But once the air starts rising rapidly over the lake, and the lake effect event is in full swing, go to locations right near downtown Buffalo. This probably happens in a similar way at the east end of Lake Ontario, but I have not looked at any data for that location. However, for Lake Erie in the Buffalo area, I have seen the connections many times.
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9. Upwelling – Ever go to Lake Ontario in August expecting the water temperature to be 72 degrees, and then come to a quick realization that the water temperature is somewhere in the 40’s? This is called upwelling, and it occurs due to the forces generated by wind, the Coriolis effect, and Eckman transport. In the western New York area it happens on the southern shore of Lake Ontario when we have strong winds with an east direction component. This strong east wind component, combined with the Coriolis effect and Eckman transport, generates a surface current that moves away from shore toward the middle of the lake. With there now being a “void” near the shore, this void is filled by water from deep in the lake. And it’s cold! What do you look for to be ready for this? Look for wind with an east component. NE, ENE, and E will cause the flip. In my experience, it takes about 24 hours or so of consistent easterly wind to notice the temperature change due to upwelling. And then it takes about another 48-72 hours for the water temperature to go back to its previous normal temperature. You can check the Lake Ontario water temperature at the websites mentioned above. This rarely happens on Lake Erie probably because it is not as deep and the temperature at depth is not all that cold. It also does not seem to happen very often on the Finger Lakes probably because they lie in a north-south direction, not east-west, which limits the impact that the Coriolis effect can have on the process. But it happens often on Lake Ontario. The even bigger problem here, however, is that the colder water temp will make the air near the surface of the lake very cold creating a temperature inversion. You know what that means from #2 above....bubbling/doming. Yep, watch out for it. I've been skunked because of it.
10. Pressure Systems - I have found it very important to know what the pressure systems look like for the day in order to have a better understanding of what the wind is likely to do that day. For this I use www.Windy.com This gives a great visual of the high pressure, low pressure, and gradient between them. Use the menu on the right side to select "Pressure", and then in the lower right corner be sure to click the little "pressure" button to see isobars. It's very important that you can see the isobars. You can then click through NAM, ECMWF, HRRR, and GFS to see how each model depicts pressure systems for that day. How similar do the models appear? If they all look very similar then the forecast might be a little more solid. If they all look pretty different then you might have less certainty about the wind for that day? If the isobars are close together that means there may be more wind. If they are far apart there will generally be less wind. This is very important. Some days you may not see much wind predicted for a location on a model like iWindsurf, but you may notice that isobars are fairly close together on Windy.com, plus you might know it will be sunny which could increase chances for a thermal. This is a set-up where you might score a session while your friends are home completely missing it. I have scored countless sessions in the summer, when NO ONE expected wind, by using this one simple process. Watch those isobars on Windy.com and watch for clear skies on the satellite picture. Then cross compare the pressure systems on Windy.com with the precipitation on the radar, with clouds on the satellite, and with fronts on the Weather Prediction Center. You will learn how it all works together.
More On Fronts - Let’s talk a little more about fronts that bring SW wind. One of my basic principles for wind driven water sports in western New York is "cold fronts good, warm fronts bad". Warm fronts generally do not bring good wind. There is a strong correlation between warm fronts and poor wind. Warm fronts advance more slowly with slower temperature changes which results in slower pressure changes and less wind. On the other hand, cold fronts, typically accompanied by a low pressure system, often bring the best SW wind of the year. They advance quickly with more rapid temperature and pressure changes. I have had so many great SW windsurfing sessions where I leave my house a couple hours before a cold front is forecasted to arrive at the beach, and by the time I get to the beach the pre-frontal wind is starting to build. By the time I rig my sail the SW wind is blowing like crazy. Watch these cold fronts very, very carefully. This one principle alone will make your whole season so much better. Pay even closer attention on summer days when bubbling is occurring. Sometimes there is bubbling occurring early in the day, but a cold front is approaching later in the day. You arrive at the beach just before the cold front arrives, and everyone else is going home because of the bubble. Patience pays off! If air pressure increases as the cold front comes through there is almost always good SW wind. You can approximate where the cold front is located by using NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center and watching wind speeds at locations upwind from you, but there is also another way. As strong cold fronts arrive they push the warm air up into the atmosphere which often results in rain all along the leading edge of the cold front. So watch the radar. Look at where the rain is located, then check wind speeds at locations that the rain has already passed. When you get to the beach look for the rain coming. Rig and wait for the rain to arrive and pass. Check for lightning and then ride when it is safe. It's like frickin clockwork with many cold fronts. You can time it almost to the minute. This has worked for me with great success many, many times.
Knowing a little bit about weather can pay big dividends when it comes to finding great wind for wind driven water sports. Why settle for anything less than the best wind that is available? Get better at determining WHEN and WHERE the wind will be blowing the best. You will get more sessions each year, find better quality wind, and be able to ride smaller sails (click here for an article on Riding Smaller Sails). A little extra attention to the weather can make your entire season more spectacular. Internalize the points we have discussed here, use them every day, and have fun in the wind.
Knowing a little bit about weather can pay big dividends when it comes to finding great wind for wind driven water sports. Why settle for anything less than the best wind that is available? Get better at determining WHEN and WHERE the wind will be blowing the best. You will get more sessions each year, find better quality wind, and be able to ride smaller sails (click here for an article on Riding Smaller Sails). A little extra attention to the weather can make your entire season more spectacular. Internalize the points we have discussed here, use them every day, and have fun in the wind.
I am not a professional meteorologist. Do NOT rely on any of this information without consulting a professional meteorologist. Always use extreme caution with all weather events. The information below is for entertainment purposes only.
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