In Western NY, since the year 2017 when I began recording wind data, we have received an average of 4.2 days per week of good wind quality with at least 15-20mph of magnitude (average 26mph) when air temperature is over 40 degrees fahrenheit (average air temp 60 degrees). This is generally between the months of April to November. That means, for 8 months per year, we can train and have fun on the water more than 4 days per week if we know when and where the wind will blow. Acquiring the skill of wind forecasting makes for a lot of very fun days on the water and fast improvement. But how is this done? How do we develop the mentality to score these seemingly endless epic sessions? How do we ignite our brain? Well, here are the steps to take:
1.) Be Open-Minded To Location Change: The wind does not always blow at the same location in WNY. It does not always blow at the same time of day either. Once you learn to accurately predict wind you will know when and where it will be blowing, but you may need to change your mentality about the locations where you ride. It's easy to get stuck in the mindset of always riding at the same place. We know what to expect at that location, our friends may be there, and the scene is familiar. But if the wind will knowingly not blow there on a given day then we will not have the opportunity to train, to improve our skills, or to have fun on the water. Here is a list of launch locations including many WNY sites. There are many spots not included on the list, but it will get you started in expanding your options. Most are within an hour drive. Now, I know some of you are thinking "I don't want to drive an hour." Well, think of how many hours most of us have wasted by going to a location and getting totally skunked. If you drive a little farther to get perfect wind you will ultimately save time in the end because you won't have to go as frequently to get the same amount of quality water time. It is a more efficient use of time.
2.) Prepare In Advance: Unless you begin preparation the night before you will miss many sessions. If the evening forecast shows an acceptable probability of wind for the next day then prepare the night before. Make your food for breakfast and lunch, or train yourself to fast for long periods of time. Put the gear in the car. Reschedule your appointments. Arrange rides for your kids. Many evenings I actually prep dinner and set the dinner table for the next day so that I don't have to mess with it after windsurfing. Then, when you wake up you can check the forecast, get your work day started, and you're ready to head to the beach when the time is right. Preparation is key!
3.) Build Your Weather Skills: It took me a couple years to build a wind forecasting system that delivered consistent results. It paid off! In 2018 I performed a data-driven experiment to measure accuracy of wind forecasting. The result was 97.3% accuracy. You can read about the methods and results here. I then wrote an article called Weather Forecasting For Wind Driven Water Sports In WNY where I detailed the process so that everyone can easily do it. It's a simple plug-and-play process that explains how to set up your electronic devices in a way that forces you to know when and where the wind will blow. Everybody can it. You don't need mad weather skills. Just follow the simple program.
More accurate forecasting of quality wind means faster improvement in this sport and more fun. The tools and the process are ready to go. Just plug-and-play. See you on the water!
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