Bio - Eric Mihelbergel is an intermediate level windsurfer and kiteboarder living in the Great Lakes Region of New York State who enjoys writing about windsports.
The WNY Wind Report
I am not a professional meteorologist. Do NOT rely on any of this information without consulting a professional meteorologist. Always use extreme caution with all weather events. The information below is for entertainment purposes only.
Wind reports/forecasts will be written for days when the wind is expected to be 15mph or greater, unless I am traveling or have other obligations. If you enjoy riding on days with less than 15mph of wind, or if I am otherwise unable to post a report/forecast, you may find this article helpful in analyzing the weather "Weather Forecasting For Wind Driven Water Sports in WNY". Accuracy of my reports/forecasts was analyzed back in the 2018 season and can be viewed by clicking here.
Forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday:
(Written 11/5/2018, Monday, 3:30pm)
Great setup with low pressure deepening in the mid-west, right now at about 1000 millibars, and it will further deepen to about 990 millibars as it enters the GLR Tuesday afternoon. Could be some rain Tuesday morning as the occluded front approaches, but most of it should end by noon. Air temps starting out around 50, ramping up to maybe 60 by lunch, then back down to 50 by bedtime.
Couple days ago it was looking like wind might not turn SW on Tuesday until after dark, but now I think we are going to luck out with the timing of SW wind. Some models are now showing it turning SW as early as 12noon while others as late as 3pm. But either way there should be enough time before dark to get a session. I'm gonna be ready by 1-2pm. Magnitude will likely be 25-45mph.
Wednesday should continue with SW from dawn until dusk with magnitude starting out 25-40mph and then possilby lessening as the day progresses. Air temps probably colder, maybe high 40's.
Enjoy it! Thursday looks like light wind, and then cold on the weekend with possible snow.
91. (Right on. 1point) 187
Written 11/4/2018, Sunday, 7:00pm:
South wind today. Finger Lakes look best with possible 25-35mph.
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Written 11/4/2018, Sunday, 12:00pm:
Possible ENE session today on Lake Ontario, maybe 15-25mph.
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Written 11/2/2018, Friday, 6:00pm:
Just keeps coming!!!!!!!!!! Arguably the best overall season since I started these wind sports in 2010 (and we missed most of April).
On Saturday we will get the back end of this low pressure system as it exits to the east. Looks like W wind on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario 20-30mph from 12noon until dark. Ride nearly the whole day. Air temps around 45 degrees with a few peaks at the sun.
I'm in drysuit now with double layer of mittens-over-gloves on my hands and tubes from my mouth into my mittens plus a cooler of hot water for hand warm-up. Very comfortable and warm. Takes about 5 minutes longer to get ready, but well worth it. These weather systems are so AWESOME this time of year that you don't want to miss any of them. Next week could give us our first 50mph session of the year. LOVE THOSE!!!!!!! Will be behind the breakwall for me, but it's an amazing feeling to have enormous waves crashing over the breakwall nearly taking you out with the spray.
LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!!! The season is getting real good now!!!!
88. (Right on. 1point) 183
Written 11/1/2018. Thursday, 8:30pm:
Pull out a set of dice to predict wind on Friday...lol.
Low pressure centered on Buffalo for Friday morning could possibly give NE wind on Lake Ontario and SW on Lake Erie at the same time, then possibly changing directions throughout the day. But it is VERY unpredictable right now. There may be a session for Friday, but at this point it would not be accurate to make any guesses. Wait until morning and look very closely at ALL the models if you want to ride. If I have time in the morning I will comment below.
87. (Right on. Very unpredictable. 1point) 182
Written 10/30/2018, Tuesday, 4:00pm:
Well, this is an interesting weather event. Low pressure pushing across Ontario Canada and high pressure pushing across the western US into central US gives us a cold front stretching from northern NY to Texas for Wednesday. With it comes some possible extreme weather for southern states. and some rain in WNY.
There are 3 options for windsports on Wednesday:
1. Finger Lakes session: There may be the option of a pre-frontal, pre-rain Finger Lakes session between sunrise and 12 noon with 20-30mph south wind.
2. Lake Erie session (southwest wind): There may be the option of a post-frontal, post-rain Lake Erie session between 12noon and 4pm with SW wind 20-30mph.
3. Lake Erie session (south wind): There may be the option of a pre-frontal, pre-rain Lake Erie session between sunrise and 10am with S wind 20-35mph.
I'm probably gonna try for option 2, but timing is important. As the rain and front approach Buffalo we will have south wind. Then as the leading edge of the front arrives wind direction will start to veer SW. So watch the radar and meters upwind of us. For example, as the rain passes Fairport Harbor and Conneaut in Ohio, watch those meters carefully for changes in wind magnitude and direction. Then you can gauge how long it will take for the same conditions to arrive in Buffalo. It's never exact, but it's usually a pretty damn reliable way of timing your session to get the wind you want.
86. (Right on. 1point) 180
Low pressure moving across the GLR now and overnight. With high pressure right behind it we get a nice gradient for Monday.
I see solid west wind from 10am until dark....20-30mph. Air temps around 44 degrees with clouds.
85. (Right on. 1point) 178
The fall season is well on its way now, and we a tasty storm coming across the southeast and up the east coast. It's gonna be windy on Saturday, but there is also a chance for a session Friday late afternoon and evening.
WRF high rez is showing 20-30mph winds on Lake Ontario out the east for Friday afternoon and evening from about 2pm until dark. Most of the other models are not showing much wind until after dark, so it might be worth keeping an eye on the meters in Port Weller, Olcott and Rochester on Friday afternoon.
As of now there appears to be less rain on Lake Ontario for Saturday, especially in the morning. Air temps look about 45 degrees after 10am. Winds 20-35mph ENE most of the day. I think I'm gonna try to avoid the rain with a morning session if I can convince myself to deal with the 45 degree air temps.
84. (Right on. 1point) 176
The low pressure from today shifts a little SE tonight, and with high pressure behind it brings a nice pressure gradient on eastern Lake Erie for Tuesday. Winds will start out WSW and then veer WNW later in the day. Should be another fairly warm 50 degree day like today, but maybe not as much sun.
Most models showing 20-30mph, but ECMWF is showing 35mph. I think 20-30mph is what we will mostly see, and maybe a few gusts in the low 30's. We could start seeing some action by 11am, with peaks winds maybe 2-6pm.
After Tuesday we may finally get a few much needed rest days! GREAT season so far, and still another good month to go.
83. (Right on. 1point) 172
And the wind keeps coming!
A weaker polar depression drops down on Monday bringing some SW wind to the east end of Lake Erie. Look for 20-30mph SW winds between 9am and 6pm. Cloudy with air temps around 50.
82. (Right on. 1point) 171
What a week!!!!!!! The last 7 sessions have had an average sail size of 3.5m for me. A week ago it was 80 degrees, and this morning it was 35 degrees. A week ago Lake Erie broke the record for the highest temp ever on that day, and today Lake Erie is at the average temp for this time of year...that's how quickly Lake temps can drop (8 degrees in one week).
We've got another polar depression dropping down and passing just to our north. On Friday it will bring SW winds. On Saturday morning the cold front associated with this low pressure system will come thru and winds will veer to W and then to NW by Saturday evening into Sunday.
For Friday look for SW winds 25-35mph most of the day. It will be warmer after noon, so enjoy riding. Saturday morning may have a little rain, and wind will likely be WSW, then quickly veering W and WNW. Possibly more magnitude on Lake Ontario, maybe 15-25mph. Sunday may still have some lighter WNW winds in store for us, but it is too far off to look at it with much detail. And it looks like there may be another polar depression right behind this one for wind on Monday.
Enjoy!!!! It's the best time of year.
81. (Right on. 1point) 168
Looks like we got a one-two punch coming!!!!!
Sunday night, a low pressure system will form over the GLR between 2 high pressure systems. This gives a nice gradient. By late morning Monday we could start to see some decent WSW wind that may build all day long and veer slightly to W. I see magnitude in the 25-40mph range from late morning until dark.
Then on Tuesday, a polar depression follows directly behind. Again this could bring WSW wind 25-40mph most of the day.
Get your stuff ready. Bring your small gear for sure. I'm thinking 3.3m again.
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Most models showing 15-20mph W-WNW for Saturday on eastern Lake Erie, but there is a possibility of 25mph. Lake Ontario kicked butt today with 30+mph most of the day, but I think Lake Erie will be better on Saturday. Take a closer look in the morning, but don't wait too long as it could start early.
(Update Saturday morning) Lake Erie now looks to have very good potential after 3pm. Possibly 20-30mph.
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Nice system coming giving us a couple days of good wind potential in WNY. By Thursday morning the low pressure from the west moves across the GLR. With it comes a cold front and a tasty pressure gradient. The cold front comes through around 8am Thursday, and WSW wind follows it for much of the day.
Look for WSW wind on the east end of Lake Erie 20-30mph. The peak appears to be around 1-3pm, but there will likely be wind much of the day. There may be some rain before sunrise, but should be mostly rain free after that with air temps falling.
On Friday air temps will be much cooler, direction will veer to mostly W or WNW, and magnitude may favor Lake Ontario. The morning looks to have more wind in store so far, but keep an eye on it as it is still 2 days away.
Lake Erie water temp is near record highs and could possibly break the record in the next couple days.
78. (Right on. 1point) 160
"Next Few Days" Forecast:
WE GOT SOME WEATHER COMING FOLKS!!!
Over the last 6 weeks we have had 9 sessions of 30-40mph. That's more than once a week. Now this week brings MORE!!! Possibly much more.
Tues/Wed brings some SW at inland locations but not much at the Lakes. So, if you are a windsurfer that likes to ride on the Niagara River then you may score a couple sessions while the rest of us are at the gym waiting for Thursday. But,....
As Michael approaches the Gulf coast Wednesday morning, the rest of North America may see significant rain and flooding from Canada to Mexico as a trough to the west and ridge to the east result in lots of water dumped on the central United States. That trough will likely move east and bring WIND to WNY for Thrursday. Could be several days in a row...possibly some SW, then maybe veering to WNW. And maybe another system right behind that.
I'm taking a look at my schedule for Thursday/Friday. Time to get things in order just in case we get it.
77. (Right on. 1point) 158
Look for light ENE winds on Lake Ontario 15-20mph much of the day.
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GFS is showing SW wind today 20mph between 3-6pm, but nobody else is showing much. It's a small low pressure system coming thru which is unpredictable. Watch the meters upwind of us.
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Today we will see ENE wind on Lake Ontario 15-25mph. Already blowing 20mph at several locations.
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A huge low pressure system will be over Quebec Thursday morning and will extend a deep trough over Lakes Erie and Ontario. Part of this low pressure system brought 60mph winds to part of South Dakota today. Lakes Michigan and Huron are currently experiencing 30mph winds at the time of this post.
For Lake Erie, winds will start out SSW at sunrise on Thursday and will veer WSW and eventually WNW. The strongest SW appears to be from sunrise until about 11am with winds 25-40mph. As the cold front passes and direction veers WNW things will look better for Lake Ontario where you may find 20-25mph for much of the early afternoon.
Storms are likely from sunrise until 11am as the cold front approaches and passes our region. Water temps are still quite warm.
73. (Ontario forecast right on, Lake Erie forecast less wind. 0.5point) 153
Today was a great start to October with a couple hours of 30mph wind on Lake Ontario. YEEHAW!!
On Tuesday there is a very localized low pressure system that will pass directly over Buffalo. This means that it's possible for wind to be blowing NE on Lake Ontario while at the same time blowing SW on Lake Erie.
Right now it looks goofy because of the localized nature of this system. Some models are showing 25mph while others are showing 5mph...and direction is all over the place on the models over the course of the day. As of now I'm not gonna bother chasing it on Tuesday unless models look significantly more aligned in the morning. Today was great day on the water, so I'm gonna continue enjoying that.
72. (Right on. 1point) 151
High pressure over the GLR for Monday bringing some ENE wind. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario have potential for 15-25mph, although models are differing quite a bit. Take a closer look at 5am to make your decisions. Maybe some rain showers, but that's no big deal. Air temps will still be in the 50's. Water temp is warm at both Lakes.
September was a fair month with only 15 sessions giving average wind speeds of 26mph at those sessions, but tomorrow is a NEW month. October is usually very good!
71. (Right on. 1point) 150
High pressure and sun today. Winds starting out WNW and backing slightly to WSW on Lake Erie. 15-20mph. There will be similar magnitude on Lake Ontario with winds starting WNW and backing to W.
Have a fun day!
70. (Right on. 1point) 149
Friday "Happy Hour" Forecast:
Are you ready for Friday Happy Hour. Today is the BEST kind of Happy Hour!!!! Windy!!! And it's probably gonna be more than an hour. Can I have a double shot of "wind" straight up (not on the rocks...that's a jinx) with a lime wedge. And put in an order of fried donkey dicks, some chicken loops and a taka.
We've got low pressure over Quebec and high pressure over the mid-west, and Lake Erie is in the middle.......yes, baby, yes....some GRADIENT!!!! As the whole thing moves east it brings a cold front arriving around 8pm, so we are gonna get some pre-frontal wind this afternoon and evening. Wait....what?....there's gonna be some sun too? Yes, baby, yes!!! So, you're telling me it's gonna be windy, on a Friday, at happy hour time, and I'm gonna need my sunglasses for a sunset session? Well, it's probable.
Pretty much all the models are showing WSW 20-25mph from 2pm until dark at the east end of Lake Erie. Probably not gonna be a nukin session, but should be a solid fun session. Remember, it get's dark at 7pm, so get there by 4pm.
69. (Right on. 1point) 148
Been a good month so far, and the wind just keeps coming. The last few sessions have been S, but tomorrow gives us some SW that we all love. However, TIMING IS THE KEY for Wednesday.
A low pressure system is forming over Michigan RIGHT NOW. It will move east overnight with the jetstream directly over us. With it comes a pretty strong cold front that could bring an abrupt change in wind direction, some possible thunder storms, and a chance for an isolated tornado.
So, it's gonna start out S, which is typical when these systems come across, and turn WSW....then WNW. For the SW-WSW you will probably want to shoot for the timeframe between 9am and 12pm. Too early and it's S, too late and it's W-WNW. As usual NAM shows S lastly longer and GFS shows more W starting earlier, but if you get to your beach by 9am you should get some SW-WSW rides before noon. It could be a little unpredictable if some storms pop up, but I'm optimistic that we will get a good hour or two of rides. Magnitude might be 20-30mph.
I'm plan to rig early with the kit I think I will ride and get dressed early.....then wait for the direction to kick in. Might have to rig a second sail, but that's no biggie. There may still be WNW wind after 12noon if you like that direction. Some models showing 25mph WNW lasting into the evening.
68. (Right on. 1point) 145
Really nice pressure gradient setting up for Tuesday morning. Gonna be a S session starting at sunrise, 20-40mph on Lake Erie. Wind magnitude will diminish as the day goes on, but there should be some wind most of the day. Rain likely in the morning.
The Finger Lakes will also get some SSE wind, maybe 20-30mph.
I will probably head over to Canada for this one. Bring your helmet with the visor for the rain.
67. (Right on. 1point) 144
The high pressure setup today and Monday morning gives us a chance for ENE sessions at Olcott.
Late Sunday afternoon and evening there is a chance for a 15mph session at Olcott. It is a low probability. Monday morning is more probable for a 20mph session at Olcott from dawn until 2pm.
66. (Right on. 1point) 143
It's almost Friday, and things are looking good.
Nice low pressure system coming across the plains today and just starting to bring some wind to Lake Michigan now. The gradient brought a 20mph session to Lake Ontario today, and by tomorrow morning we will see a lot more wind here in Buffalo.
Look for SSW winds 20-40mph most of the day, veering WSW as the cold front arrives around 7pm. GFS has it more SW while NAM has it more S, butI think it's gonna be mostly SSW. Seems to be a pretty strong cold front, so watch for storms in the late afternoon. And winds could ramp up to 50mph with the storms, so use caution.
The Finger Lakes should be howling as well as Lake Erie. I'm tentatively planning to sail Lake Erie, probably at one of the beaches a little more SW of Buffalo than usual to accomodate the SSW direction. However, I'm not opposed to driving to Seneca Lake or Canada if the forecast looks different in the morning.
Enjoy the ride!!!
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While we all have our eyes on Friday, don't forget about TODAY. There may be a session after work.
ENE winds may pick up on Lake Ontario in the Olcott area. Magnitude possibly 15-20mph, although a couple models are showing a little more. The time frame looks to be 3pm to dark.
Friday looks great. Direction likely to be SSW most of the day, so start thinking about which beaches you will ride on that direction. More details later.
64. (Right on. 1point) 139
There is a small probability for a WSW session today on Lake Erie, 15-20mph, between 2-6pm. The high res versions of WRF and NAM are showing it along with ECMWF. Don't get excited, but keep an eye on it if you are desperate for wind. Might be a good foil session or big gear session as the remains of Florence exit to our east. Mild cold front coming through around 2pm.
The big story is FRIDAY! Nice low pressure system forecasted to develop out west today and tomorrow, and then moving east. There has been solid agreement among models since Sunday and it keeps looking better. Let's hope. Get your things done over the next couple days in case it comes true. You may want to start dropping some subtle hints at work that you have a sore throat and feel a bug coming on, and then if the forecast still looks good on Wed/Thurs you can step it up to nausea and chills.
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There is a chance today for a Lake Ontario session between Olcott and Port Weller. Only a couple models showing it, but I think a 20mph ENE session is a possibility today between 1-4pm.
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Can we make it 3 DAYS IN A ROW on east wind?
As I suspected, rain forecasts are lessening for Monday. I think the probability of a good Monday session is low, but I'm not ruling it out until Monday morning.
It's probably gonna be E wind in most of the region or maybe ESE. Rain will be a factor, but I've had many, many good sessions in pouring rain that lasted all day, so it could still be good. Possibly even Burlington, ON at Powerline Beach. I won't drive to Toronto though.
I'm gonna stay optimistic until morning. I'm gonna watch the south shore of Lake Ontario between Olcott and Rochester, and the north shore of Lake Erie between Long Beach and Thunder Bay. There may be a good session to be had. Don't get too excited, but keep an eye on it.
I'm looking for 20-30mph, side-shore or side-on. I won't bother for anything less after 2 good days in a row. Lake Ontario water is gonna be freakin' cold again as it was today, so bring warm stuff if you go there. My wife even wore her dry suit today, and she was very happy that she did.
The time to watch: from dawn until 12noon...if it doesn't happen by then just go to the gym for your workout.
61. (Right on. 1point) 128
If you haven't already noticed, it's chilly outside. On Lake Ontario, today will likely be a preview of October conditions with chilly air temps and the likelihood that water temps will be in the 50's after yesterday's strong east winds. Wind forecasts for western Lake Erie seem to show the strongest winds for today, but they are already getting the rain. I'm headed back to Ontario after an awesome wave session yesterday.
Similar pressure/gradient setup to yesterday. Lake Ontario looks best from 12noon-5pm, with winds ENE around 20-30mph. I'm planning to go to Olcott, but it looks like there may be wind from Burlington to Rochester. I think we will have just enough N in the direction to make it sideshore without going offshore. Lake Erie also looks good, but tricky to find a beach on the USA side with so much E in the direction.
Clouds all day, with lots of rain overnight. Monday has more E wind for us but still lots of rain likely in the morning.
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I'm posting this forecast a little earlier than usual because you may want to get up at 5am for this one depending where you ride.
Very high pressure to our north and Gordon pushing up from the south makes a nice pressure gradient for Saturday. A cold front coming through overnight will cool things off for Saturday. Some sun is expected as well.
Winds will be out of the NE on Saturday. Lake Ontario looks to have the most wind from sunrise until 11am, while Lake Erie beaches look to have stronger winds after 12noon. Looks like 20-30mph on both lakes at those peak times.
I'm planning to ride Lake Ontario, so I'm gonna get up at 5am to check the models, and tentatively plan to be at the beach by 7am. Should be a good day!
More wind coming on Sunday....probably ENE to ESE depending on locations, again 20-30mph. Monday is still too far off to be accurate, but will likely have a south component and may be higher magnitude than Saturday and Sunday. Rain may be an issue on Monday, but that could change.
All in all looks to be a good couple of days. Have fun!
59. (Right on. 1point) 126
We are just missing a very nice trough that will impact Lake Huron and Lake Superior on Wednesday, but we may get a little wind. Models this year seem better at forecasting thermals in the Buffalo area, and some are indicating thermaling for Wednesday at Buffalo area beaches. It's gonna be so damn hot, but I've got to have some faith in theses models.
We may see 15-20mph SW wind between 12-4pm, although I admit I'm a little skeptical with the heat. Perhaps a little more wind at inland locations like the Niagara River.
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More rides on Monday in the 15-25mph wind range again. Expect SW direction, probably best between 11am-4pm. Looks like more sun on Monday than today and a little hotter.
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High pressure to the south, low pressure to the north = some wind on Sunday.
Look for SW winds on eastern Lake Erie starting Sunday morning, maybe as early as 9am, continuing through maybe 3pm. Magnitude 15-25mph.
56. (Right on. 1point) 120
So the wind on Wednesday is from a different system than today. There is a small low pressure system forming over Lake Michigan tonight that will pass north of Buffalo tomorrow. It is more localized which can be a little more finicky than larger systems like we had today, plus we still have the heat to contend with that likely caused the drop in wind magnitude at 2:30pm today.
Timing is important for Wednesday as it will start out south and veer to SW. I think the best time for SW direction and magnitude on eastern Lake Erie is from 11am-1pm. But check models again in the morning. Magnitude looks to be around 20-35mph with perhaps a couple gusts into the 40's.
Cold front with this one, but not until around 8pm, so we are looking at pre-frontal wind. Good to watch meters upwind as a pre-game forecast.
55. (Right on. 1point) 116
Aside from the heat, Tuesday looks solid. Trough extending from Quebec toward the GLR, and high pressure to our south and east. Pretty much all the models are calling for 20-35mph from the SW from 10am-5pm. The only question is the heat. I'm optimistic. Bring your small stuff.
54. (Right on. 1point) 115
More wind coming? August has been a decent month so far with 15 days of wind. Still not many days over 30mph, but that may change this week if the heat doesn't kill it.
For today (Monday) we see a pressure gradient tightening up as we get into the 12 o'clock hour, with 2 low pressure systems to our north/west and a large high pressure system to our southeast.
Most of the models are showing some SW flow beginning around 11am today, and most show magnitude 15-25mph. I'm leaning more towards the 15mph, but just check the meters after 11am. The peak appears to be 2-3pm.
53. (Right on. 1point) 114
Mixed previews for Sunday on direction and magnitude. However, timing seems to indicate that early morning is best.
I suggest waking at 5am to check the models. Some models showing S wind early while others show SW. Magnitude varies from 15mph to 25mph. Most models show diminishing winds as the morning progresses, however, a couple show the wind staying 15-20 into the early afternoon.
I think the best wind will be from sunrise until 11am. Maybe 15-25mph, hopefully SW. I'm gonna check the models at 5am and see how it looks then. No major fronts to speak of...we are looking at a mild gradient due to low pressure at our north/west and high pressure at our south/east.
Get up early!!!
52. (Right on. 1point) 113
South at Sunrise: Saturday Forecast
With low pressure over Wisconsin and high pressure to the east there could be some south wind on the Canadian shore of eastern Lake Erie for Saturday morning. I would plan to get up at sunrise and check the meters and conditions. Look for 15-25mph conditions from sunrise until 10am, then diminishing.
51. (Right on. 1point) 112
With big low pressure over Quebec and high pressure over the Ohio valley, we get a pressure gradient for the GLR today. Couple that with sunny skies and moderate air temps and it looks to be a decent SW session for eastern Lake Erie this afternoon and evening.
Look for winds to back from WNW to WSW around noon. Add some possible thermaling and diural mixing, and we may see 20-25mph after 3pm. There already appears to be a little lake shadowing at 10am which can sometimes indicate that thermaling could be taking place.
50. (Right on. 1point) 111
Seems pretty straight forward for today (Tuesday).....the Finger Lakes.
A low pressure system from the mid-west has moved into the GLR. This system has brought some major thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes to the mid-west region. A good deal of rain is forecasted for the Buffalo area and Lake Erie today....BUT...the good news is that there is much less rain predicted for the Finger Lakes region.
Winds will be mostly south today and will begin to veer SW as a cold front pushes through late this evening. Looks to me like we will see 20-30mph south wind on the Finger Lakes today, with the biggest wind after 2pm. At 7:30am the meter at Seneca Lake already says 21mph with gusts of 27mph.
Then, by Wednesday morning, winds will have veered to WNW and Lake Ontario looks to be the place to go with forecasts showing 20-30mph in the morning.
We are planning to hit the Finger Lakes today, spend the night, and then hit Lake Ontario at sunrise Wednesday somewhere between Rochester and Sodus Bay. Hoping for an awesome couple days.
49. (On the money. 1point) 109
As we wait for the low pressure system to arrive on Tues/Wed, there is a chance for a ENE session on Lake Ontario today between Olcott and Rochester. Look for ENE wind possibly 15-20mph between 3-7pm. I don't think I am personally going to make the drive, but if you live near there it may be worth stopping by for a light wind session.
48. (Prob could justify a full point, but only giving this half a point. 0.5 point) 108
There is a small low pressure system developing overnight in Michigan that will intensify over Buffalo starting early in the morning. Pretty much all the models are showing wind 15-25mph with some differences in the timing. I think there is a good chance that it will be windy much of the day. My suggestion is to get up at 6am to check all the models. Get your stuff ready tonight. A cold front approaches with the system. Winds should start out from the south and veer WSW as the system moves east. I think both wind direction and magnitude will be best for eastern Lake Erie between 10am and 4pm, but don't rely on this exclusively. Watch the meters starting 6am.
47. (Right on. 1point) 104
The low pressure system and it's trough from yesterday exit the region toward Greenland, and a little bit higher pressure moves into the eastern end of Lake Erie with a bit of a pressure gradient.
It's gonna be a little hotter today, so bubbling may be an issue. The cold front that was approaching the Great Lakes Region yesterday has stalled over Lake Huron, so we prob won't see much cooling during the day today.
The forecasts are kinda like yesterday where a lot of the models are calling for 15-20mph WSW, while a couple are calling for 20-30mph. I think 15-25mph WSW is what we will see, best between 12-6pm.
46. (Right on. 1 point) 103
A low pressure system, just south of the polar front, moves across Canada today. Toward evening, it extends a trough over the Great Lakes Region, giving us a bit of a pressure gradient after 4pm. A couple models are showing 20-30mph, while the rest are showing 15-20mph. I think 15-20mph is realistic for the eastern end of Lake Erie....anything more is a bonus.
45. (Right on. 1point) 102.
Wednesday Morning Forecast Update:
There is still a great deal of inconsistency among models because of the localized nature of this small low pressure system. When systems are larger and further away they are generally easier to predict, but when they are small and right on top of us then any minor change can make a big difference.
However, I think we can still make some good calls for today. Timing is the biggest question. It looks to me like we will see 20-30mph WSW wind on the eastern end of Lake Erie. But when???
The wind should start to veer from S to WSW by 10-11am. About half of the models show peak wind 4-8pm and the other half 12-4pm. So I would be ready by 12noon. Watch the meters closely, especially the ones upwind from us. The system is approaching from the west, so keep an eye on the meters in Dunkirk NY and Erie PA for both direction and magnitude.
The Canadian side looks about the same as the American side as far as I can tell.
44. (Right on. 1point) 89.
Maybe 10-15mph of NE wind on Lake Ontario late this afternoon, but nothing major. Let's see what Wednesday looks like tomorrow morning with this small low pressure system developing over Ohio.
43. (Right on. 1point) 88.
This week is like GroundHog Day. Sun again, SW wind 15-25mph, looks best between 1-5pm.
Today makes 12 days in a row of wind in the WNY area, with only 6 of those days over 20mph, and the other 6 days 15-20mph.
42, (Good forecast. 1point) 85.
Pretty much the same setup as yesterday except post-frontal wind instead of pre-frontal. Looks to me like we may see 15-25mph SW best between 1-4pm. Nice and sunny.
41. (Right on. 1point) 84.
After a nice little SW kite session today the SW continues on Thursday. Low pressure over Quebec and high pressure in the west gives us a decent pressure gradient. A cold front approaches in the late afternoon. And it looks to be a little sunnier than previously expected. Considering all of that, I like the setup for hopefully a 5.3m windsurf session. Most of the models are showing 15-25mph. I'm looking for my session between 2-6pm, but will decide in morning as I watch the meters and updated forecasts.
40. (Good forecast. 1point) 83.
Wednesday: SW returns
SW wind returning to our region starting today. We may see 10-15mph SW winds today. WRF even shows 20mph, but that may be a little too optimistic.
Thursday and Friday look a little better.
39. (Right on. 1point) 82
Still south wind in the Finger Lakes for yet another day with similar pressure system still in place. Again 15-25mph south wind possible in the Finger Lakes region for Tuesday. Rain possible again as well.
38. (Accurate forecast. 1point) 81.
Monday!!! The wind just keeps coming!!!
That low pressure we had the last couple days is gonna move toward Florida while HUGE high pressure engulfs the Atlantic Ocean. This gives a nice pressure gradient.
Who gets the wind tomorrow? The Finger Lakes AGAIN!!! I may travel to the middle-finger lake (Seneca) tomorrow if it still looks good in the morning since our schedule did not allow us to travel that distance today. But what a day Seneca Lake had..
Possibly 15-25mph south winds on the Finger Lakes for Monday, mostly between 10am-5pm. Chance of rain and cloudy. And Tuesday also has potential for the Finger Lakes with south wind again.
37. (Accurate forecast. 1point) 80.
Wind and rain early! Low pressure from the SE moves up to NYS early in the morning while that low pressure over Michigan remains in the Ohio Valley. This forms a neat setup for N-NE wind on both Lake Erie and Ontario for early morning.
Be prepared for rain and chilly air temps. Get out the rain visor for your helmet and a wetsuit tonight. The water could be colder at Lake Ontario as it was already chilly today when we were there.
Get there early. Sessions on both Lakes look to happen between sunrise and 10am. Wind magnitude looks bigger on Lake Ontario, but I am leaning toward my session being on Lake Erie because of the warmer water temps and possible better direction. Central and Eastern Lake Ontario could be anywhere between 25-40mph. It will probably be less than that at most other locations. I would love to score a 20-30mph session on eastern Lake Erie at dawn. That would make for a great start to the day.
There are a lot of differences in models as of this evening, so get up early to review all of them. I think the biggest factor for tomorrow is DIRECTION. It could really vary from forecast to forecast and location to location. There will prob be a little luck involved.
36. (Good forecast. 1point) 79.
Interesting. I can almost cut and paste the forecast from today.
That low pressure over Lake Michigan is staying put. I see the possibility for a sunrise session Saturday morning on the Canadian side of Lake Erie at the eastern end, maybe 20-30mph (a little more potential than today). I’m gonna get up at 4:30am to check the forecast then. Even though it’s supposed to be hot on Saturday the air temp at sunrise is supposed to be around 70, so bubbling should not be an issue that early. In addition, it should be slightly cooler on Saturday than Friday. Models are showing decent S-SE wind most of the day, but the increasing heat often makes south wind goofy. Don’t rule out the rest of the day entirely, but just be prepared that it could be goofy as it heats up.
Lake Ontario is the same story as today, which worked out great. The area between Olcott and Rochester could see ENE wind in the early/mid afternoon, maybe 20-25mph. This is no guarantee, and none of the models are showing it except ECMWF, but I’m gonna watch for it. I like the set-up. Could be a double session kind of day on 2 different lakes.
The BIG question here is early Sunday morning. Possibly a big NE blow just after sunrise on Lake O. Let's take a look at that later.
35. (Blew on both Lake Erie and Ontario. A little on Lake Ontario at Olcott, but afternoon at other Lake O locations. 1point) 78.
Let's start with Friday.
So, by Friday morning that low pressure system from the plains will park itself over Lake Michigan for a day or two. There will be a pretty steep pressure gradient by Friday morning that looks to intensify into Saturday. This will mostly bring winds from the S-SE for Friday with one possible exception. Here is what I see:
I see the possibility for a sunrise session Friday morning on the Canadian side of Lake Erie at the eastern end, maybe 20-25mph. I'm gonna get up at 4:30am to check the forecast then. Even though it's supposed to be hot on Friday the air temp at sunrise is supposed to be in the low 60's, so bubbling should not be an issue that early. Models are showing decent S-SE wind most of the day, but the increasing heat often makes south wind goofy. Don't rule out the rest of the day entirely, but just be prepared that it could be goofy as it heats up.
Here is the possible exception that I mentioned above: Lake Ontario between Olcott and Rochester could see ENE wind in the early/mid afternoon, maybe 20-25mph. This is no guarantee, and none of the models are showing it except ECMWF, but I'm gonna watch for it. I like the set-up. Could be a double session kind of day on 2 different lakes.
Saturday is too for off to mention it in much detail. I'm not super excited about this weather system, but I think it's definitely worth watching closely.
34. (Right on. 1point) 78.
The Day: Tuesday
The Lakes: Eastern Lake O looks best today, but don't rule out Eastern Lake E.
The Set-Up: Low pressure over Quebec and Newfoundland coupled with high pressure over Minnesota gives us a pretty nice pressure gradient over Lakes E and O....6+mbar. The cold front has passed thru our region as the low pressure shifted east overnight, so we will feel much less heat today.
The Wind: The greatest wind magnitude appears to be the southern shore of Lake Ontario from Rochester to Oswego, with WNW wind peaking 20-25mph between 2-8pm. This is likely where I will be heading. However, if you live in Buffalo and don't have time to drive that far, keep an eye on eastern Lake Erie meters. While nearly every model is showing WNW direction in Buffalo we may possibly see wind backing to W or even WSW at our beaches on the open lake with possible magnitudes of 15-20mph.
The Conclusion: We have hope from the wind drought.
33. (Wow, right on! Lake O awesome, Lake E turned WSW. Great day! 1point) 75.
Looks like another possible foil day today...10-15mph. Will see how Tuesday shapes up in the morning.
32. (Right on. Blew 10-15mph at several spots. 1point) 74.
Maybe 10-12mph for a foil session today.
31. (Several locations blew 10-12mph. 1point) 72.
ECMWF is showing 15-20mph SW for this afternoon. None of the other models are showing much. I'm not gonna plan my day around it, but it's worth keeping an eye on the meter. There is a pressure gradient on the ECMWF model.
(Later in the morning) NAM now also showing 20-25mph for 3-5pm.
30. (Right on. Great session 5.3m. 1point) 68.
Monday, Monday, Monday!
Rare for me to get excited about 15-20mph SW, but that's the kinda season it has been so far...plus I think we might get a little boost. Here's the story:
Huge low pressure to the north along the polar front crosses Hudson Bay. Higher pressure to the west, south and east gives a pressure gradient over Lake Erie. Now, it's not a spectacular pressure gradient, and most of the models are only giving us 15-20mph, BUT, I'm optimistic for 25mph, which is what the high res versions of NAM and WRF are showing, because I think there may be some thermal enhancement tomorrow. Clear skies and moderate air pressure tomorrow, plus significant cooling over night tonight makes me optimistic for a 4.7m session over a 5.3m session.
As of now it does not look like there will be much wind before 1pm, At this point I'm aiming for the best session between 3-6pm once the thermal kicks in or at least diurnal mixing is at a max. A cold front comes through well after dark, so there is not much arrival-time planning decision to be made with regard to the cold front.
I doubt this will be a true "wave session" but I think we may get some rides. Probably not worth taking a day off work, but reasonable probability of excessive smiles as we all will appreciate whatever wind we can get.
Do a wind dance before bed to help us all out!!!! Get in on video if you can.
29. (Good forecast. Was 25-30mph at both airports, and 15-20mph lakeside. 1point)
As high pressure moves in from the west, the pressure gradient increases pretty nice for early Friday morning. It brings winds from NW-N. Air temps will be much cooler around 75 degrees. Right now I see the best wind on the southern shore of Lake Ontario, maybe 20mph. I am going to set an alarm clock for 4:30am and get up to check the forecast and meters at that time. You might consider doing the same, but do not drink your coffee until after you check the forecast just in case it sucks, then you can go back to bed. It is certainly possible that there may be some NW-N wind on Lake Erie, so don't overlook it. Rain should be over by sunrise.
28. (Right on the money. Lake Ontario south shore was good. 1point)
The story for Thursday.
A nice low pressure system passing to our north over Hudson Bay will bring us a little bit of a gradient, but as of now we will prob miss the steep gradient. Cold front from this low pressure system doesn't come through until shortly after midnight Thursday evening (aka Friday morning), which is prob too far past dark on Thursday to give us much pre-frontal wind while you can still see without a headlamp. Air temps look to be slightly cooler than the past couple days, but still relatively hot (compared to Lake temps). Bubbling might not be quite as bad but still possible.
Bottom Line: We might see a 15+mph SW session on Thursday between 4pm and dark. I'm not gonna bother charging my GoPro for this event, but I will watch the meters and check the forecast tomorrow.
27. (Spot on forecast. Wind came up to 17-18mph couple times, but was nothing great. 1point)
Monday could produce a SW session on eastern Lake Erie. Don't get too excited, but there may be a 15-20mph session between 12-6pm. A mild cold front pushes through Buffalo around 8pm as a deep low pressure system crosses Quebec. Pre-frontal wind is a possibility Monday even with the extreme heat. I'm not saying that you should call your mom and tell her to come take pictures, but you might want to keep an eye on the meters after 12noon. The pressure gradient looks to dissipate after 6pm, so don't expect too much when this mild cold front arrives at 8pm, but watch the meters earlier in the day.
26. (Good forecast. Crystal Beach blew 15-20mph for couple hours. Buffalo Lighthouse blew 10-15mph for an hour. All as cold front approached. 1point)
I think a 20+mph session is only a 50/50 possibility on Lake Erie for Saturday. A warm front is coming through overnight, and warm fronts like this one are 50/50 when it comes to wind. Cold fronts are much more predictable when it comes to wind. There is a decent pressure gradient which gives me hope, but it will be pretty hot with air temps in the 90's. The pressure gradient is over northern Lake Michigan right now and it is blowing mid-20's there, so that is a real positive, especially seeing that the warm front is hitting there right now and the wind is still surviving. WindFinder is showing wind early, like 9am, so I would take advantage of an insurance session if it arises early in the day. Bring a paddle board or foil board in case big wind doesn't happen as it is not a solid system.
25. (Spot on forecast. Came up close to 20mph for a very brief time, but not over. Mostly 10-15mph. 1point)
Things are still looking pretty decent for an evening SW sunny session today.
24. (Right on. 1point)
Thursday shows a cold front approaching later in the day. Possibly some SW wind coming with it. Don't get too excited, but ECMWF is showing mid-twenties.
23. (Right on. 1point)
This afternoon and evening may produce some NE wind on western/central Lake Ontario. Keep an eye on the meters at Olcott and Rochester.
Wednesday looks solid. More questions than answers for Thursday.
A small low pressure system is developing over the plains today. It moves eastward, and lands right on Buffalo Wednesday. With it comes South wind and 8+mbar of pressure gradient from the west end of Lake Erie to the east end of Lake Ontario, thanks to the high pressure to our east. That's a steep gradient over our 2 lakes. The greatest wind magnitude appears to be over the Finger Lakes (20-30mph) on Wednesday from mid-morning through evening. You may be able to catch some lighter south wind in Canada on the east end of Lake Erie as well. Beware that a few showers may develop across the region. Air temps are forecast to be around 80 degrees, so bubbling should not be a huge issue as Lake surface temps are nearing 70 degrees, but it may be a minor factor so consider staying at your riding location through the evening as air temps cool if you think there is bubbling occurring in the afternoon.
On Thursday morning a low pressure system near Hudson Bay overpowers the smaller low pressure over Buffalo and extends a fairly deep trough over NY state. This gives us another decent pressure gradient and WSW wind . The question here, however, is what the magnitude of wind will be. Most of the models are showing 15-20mph, but I'm optimistic for a little more wind because I think the gradient may tighten up in the afternoon Thursday. It's too far away to be sure, but look for some WSW wind on eastern Lake Erie Thursday, and possibly decent west wind on central Lake Ontario.
22. (Good forecasting. 1point)
Saturday morning shows a decent pressure gradient on Lake Ontario which could mean some more wind for Olcott. Check it again in the morning. Might be worth the short drive. Again, keep in mind that the water will be cold.
21. (As expected. 1point)
Friday, again, has potential for Olcott, in the afternoon this time. Keep in mind, however, that once it blows NE for 24 hours or more the water often upwells (flips) on Lake Ontario due to the Coriolis Effect and Eckman Trransport. That means there is increased risk of bubbbling/doming due to the cold surface temps. I may try Olcott early afternoon Friday. It blew all morning there today.
20. (As expected. 1point)
FYI: Possible sunrise session Thursday morning at Olcott. WRF showing the most wind at 20-30mph between 5am-9am. NAM also showing 20mph+. High pressure to our north, low pressure to our southwest makes a gradient of a few millibars over Lake Ontario. Looks to be a beautiful morning with sunny skies. The sun rises on the upwind side at Olcott so it is not in your eyes while riding.
I will be checking the forecast again at 4am. Maybe ride 6-8am, home by 9am. We will see what happens.
19. (As expected. 1point)
6/17/2018, Sunday (evening):
Oh Monday, Monday...how you vex me!
vex (veks): make (someone) feel annoyed, frustrated, or worried, especially with trivial matters.
To begin, there will be likely be wind on Monday, however, the question is when and where because of the HEAT (bubbling). If you enjoy windsurfing at inland locations, like the Niagara River or the pond in Rochester, then you have a very good chance of wind much of the late morning and afternoon. That option is not a good one for kiters as the lulls in those locations drop kites out of the sky and the gusts hot launch you to Canada. In addition, many of us windsurfers do not care for the gust/lull conditions of inland locations, so let's look at LAKE options next.
Sunrise may still be an option for a light wind insurance session to beat the heat, so you might want to check the wind and forecasts at 5am, and, if it looks decent, grab a PowerBar and get to the beach for sunrise at 5:30am. However, I think I'm gonna hold out for pre-frontal wind later in the day. It's conflicted as to the exact timing of the cold front probably because it will not be moving very quickly. I don't think there will be too much wind after the cold front passes with this one (plus a lot of rain), but I do think there is the chance for some wind as the front approaches, even with the heat. So, I'm gonna keep my options open between 11am-8pm and watch the meters for a 12m kite session or maybe better.
18. (Spot on forecast. 1point)
Hot, Hot, Hot!!!
Father's day not looking too good for windsports on the lake with minimal flow and very hot temps. The barbecue may be a better option as bubbling/doming will likely be an issue.
Monday has some potential with a deep trough directly over Lake Erie and Ontario probably giving us 4-6mbar of gradient over the 2 lakes, BUT a lot depends on the accompanying cold front. Will the cold front pass through before dark? There may possibly be the option of a sunrise session to beat the heat, but let's take a closer look at this Sunday evening.
Happy Father's Day!
17. (As expected. 1point)
6/13/2018, Wednesday (evening):
Early Thursday morning looks nice for a WNW session on Lake Ontario, with decreasing winds as the day goes on.
16. (Good wind as expected. 1point)
6/13/2018, Wednesday (morning):
What a beautiful thing!!! Air pressure currently rising at Toledo buoy (western Lake Erie) and falling at Prince Edward buoy (eastern Lake Ontario), thus creating our gradient. The exact timing of the cold front seems to be somewhat conflicted on different models (between 3-6pm), but I don't think it matters much today as there looks to be good pre-frontal and post-frontal winds. Yesterday they were showing 2 cold fronts, so that could be the reason for the discrepancy today...it may actually be 2 fronts instead of one. Warm front passing thru now. Between 2-6pm looks like excellent wind. There could be a storm when the cold front(s) passes, although I don't think it will last too long, but be careful if you see it coming...winds could ramp up to 40mph. I think we could see consistent 30mph wind for much of the afternoon. Looks to be a good day.
15. (Excellent session as expected. 1point)
What's happening Wednesday? Low pressure looks to develop in northern Ontario early Wednesday morning. As it tracks southeastward it could bring significant winds to WNY. Pretty much all the models show WSW wind on eastern Lake Erie 25-40mph, probably peak between 3-5pm, veering WNW after 5pm. This will be ushered in by a cold front prob around 2-3pm that should ramp up the wind, keep air temps at good level to prevent bubbling, and bring a few showers/storms.
Keep in mind that this low pressure system does NOT yet exist, and will not exist with much definition until mid-morning on Wednesday. That makes it a little less certain in my mind because I can not yet see it's impact, although I think it is still very likely to come true.
Eastern Lake Erie seems to be the best spot at this point, although western/central Lake Ontario could be decent WNW after 6pm. Watch the cold front and get to Lake Erie beaches an hour or two before that front arrives. Keep an eye on the wind meters on Lake Michigan early morning, then Lake Huron mid-morning, and then Lake Erie around noon.
14. (Excellent session as expected. 1point)
Today was great 4.2m session at Olcott, sunny and warm. Monday looks to be similar with perhaps a little less wind. Similar pressure gradient over the Great Lakes as today with very sunny skies. I'm planning to ride again late morning to early afternoon. Water temps could be significantly colder (possibly mid-40's) due to upwelling with this ENE wind. It usually only takes about 24 hours of consistent ENE wind to cause upwelling at Olcott, and it looks like it will blow a little through the night.
13. (Upwelling on Lake Ontario dropped water temp to 50 degrees which cooled air temp and caused bubbling. Less wind than expected 0.5point)
Looking decent for Olcott so far on Sunday. Deep trough over the plains and a decent ridge over Quebec/NewYork gives a pressure gradient with NE winds on the Great Lakes. Models showing 5-6mb drop from east end of Lake Ontario to west end of Lake Erie. Not bad for high pressure in our area. WRF and NOAA showing 30mph winds at Olcott most of the day....but I think 20-25mph is a more reasonable expectation given the conditions. Probably get there around 10 or 11am. Peak winds maybe 11am-3pm. Looks to be a nice day with some sun and nice air temps. Lake Ontario water temp says 58 degrees at 35 feet off Rochester....surface temp about the same. Might also blow at Olcott on Monday, but water could be much colder with upwelling from the NE wind, so enjoy Sunday if it happens.
12. (Excellent session as expected. 1point)
Might see 16-18mph at Olcott today. Not enough for me to make the drive, but if you are desperate there is a little hope.
11. (It blew just as expected. 1 point)
Thursday is nothing major, but most models show 15-22mph for Thursday. There is a bit of a pressure gradient on all models. Mostly sunny skies with moderate air pressure/temperature give us a chance for a thermal. As of now I'm planning to kite around 12noon-ish. Seems likely for a 12m kite session. Check it again in the morning.
10. (It bubbled and wind was only 10-12mph. 0.5 points)
If you really want to ride on Tuesday, the highest probability is probably 7am. Weak cold front coming thru around 8am. Wind likely to be over by noon. Direction likely to be W or WNW as the low pressure dips a little south. Maybe 20mph winds. Then, low pressure system moving OUT of the region. Next couple days after that.....not too much....rest/recovery phase. I'm probably not gonna chase it on Tuesday unless the 4am forecast looks a good deal better.
9. (It turned out to be windy from noon-3pm, a little later than expected. 0.5 points)
The pressure trough remains over our region for most of the day with a decent gradient. Winds speeds will probably be somewhere between 20-30mph, with diurnal mixing likely giving us our peak wind speeds during the warmest part of the day (1-4pm). At 8am wave height at the Erie East Buoy is already 3 feet. That's a good sign this early in the day. I'm optimistic for our first wave session of the year, although I don't think it will be anything epic. A few frontside turns would make me very happy. Neither bubbling nor thermaling seem to be relevant today.
8. (Excellent forecast as expected. 1point)
As of Sunday morning things are still looking decent. Perhaps a little less magnitude of wind for Monday/Tuesday, but I think upper 20's is not out of the question for Monday with the trough right over Buffalo. Looking like direction for Monday prob WSW. Probably 2 cold fronts coming through with this system, so bubbling should not be a problem. Sunday evening could see SSE winds in the low 20's, so you might wanna grab your passport and head for the border, although I'm not super optimistic about it. Should be able to go barefoot now with surface temps in mid-60's.
7. (Monday and Tuesday turned out as expected, and Sunday did blow SSE at Seneca Lake.1 point)
So…we got those 3 days in a row, on Northeast, South, and South, that I discussed in the Monday post, thanks to Alberto and his unnamed non-subtropical friend from the northern plains.
Well, there is currently another low pressure system over the northern plains. It's moving eastward. It appears to arrive near the Great Lakes late Sunday. The big 3 models show it producing somewhat different wind directions in Buffalo, but it seems likely that there could be some decent west wind Monday and Tuesday. Keep an eye on it.
And don't rule out this afternoon for a light wind session with this weak cold front coming through, and Saturday dawn patrol for some possible NNE wind from this huge ridge.
6. (This actually turned out to be spot on even 4 days in advance. 1point)
Been a slow season in WNY so far, but the next couple days have a little potential. It looks like a lot depends on how quickly this storm in the Florida panhandle tracks northward.
Tuesday might deliver some moderate NE wind along southern shores of Lake Erie and SW shores of Lake Ontario. A mild cold front Tuesday morning might help a little to prevent bubbling. Gonna be mostly sunny which could heat up the land and help produce a lake breeze. I'm optimistic for maybe 20mph NE winds on Tuesday. Probably Olcott for me, but we will see.
Then, Wed/Thurs looks interesting as that storm from Florida, along with another low pressure from the upper midwest, both make their way over the Great Lakes. So far this looks to produce some possible south wind, or maybe SE/SW.
BUT....it's gonna be hot, which can make the wind goofy. In conclusion, it might be windy or it might not be windy.
5. (Tuesday delivered at Olcott as expected. Wednesday and Thursday blew South at Seneca Lake as expected. 1point)
The next few days....
Tuesday is all over the place. I can't make much sense of it. Models are messy. If you camp at an eastern Lake Erie beach ALL day you might find a couple hours of SW riding, but I'm not gonna bother chasing it.
Wed, Thurs, and Friday look like some more predictable SW flow on eastern Lake Erie as some pressure gradients start to establish. In addition, clear skies seem favorable for the possibility of some mid-afternoon thermal enhancement. Keep an eye on those eastern Lake Erie meters. Might be worth a drive to the beach if you see the meters hitting 14mph. Bring a paddleboard though just in case the wind doesn't happen.
4. (Tuesday was nothing as expected. Wed and Fri both had wind to kite as expected. 1point)
NE session on its way??? Maybe.
Not much wind to speak of since that double cold front last week Thursday that brought some SW, but the next couple days could bring some NE sessions. Low pressure moving into the south-western states could draw NE wind across Lake Erie and Ontario where the air pressure is higher. Couple that with mostly clear skies in the forecast, and we could see some thermal enhancement.
While Friday seems to bring the higher pressure gradient and better wind forecast, I would not rule out the possibility of NE sessions on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon on the south-central shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Keep an eye on those meters.
3. (Friday turned out to be 30mph+ as expected. Wed/Thurs blew some in Rochester as expected. 1point)
It looks like a cold front will overtake the warm front in Michigan early Thursday morning before that warm front can reach Buffalo. This could allow SW winds to set up in Buffalo around 9am without too much bubbling. I'm looking for a 9am session locally, but if that idea blows up in the 5am forecast then Seneca Lake is an option for a 7am session still leaving enough drive time. Good luck!
2. (Good session as expected. 1 point)
Looks like the cold front will enter Buffalo somewhere around 5pm-ish. If it bubbles before that I'm optimistic that the cold front will push the bubble out and we might have good wind when it gets here. And hopefully some pre-frontal wind before. Be careful when it approaches...this front could ramp up the wind very quickly.
No bombogenesis today, but I think it's cool that this front extends from NY all the way to Mexico.
1. (Wind turned on at 4:30pm like a switch. Blew 35mph+ whole time as expected. 1point)